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Concepts
Backtesting
Testing a strategy on past data to estimate how it would have performed
Definition
Backtesting applies a trading rule to historical price and on-chain data to estimate past performance. Prone to look-ahead and survivorship bias — a clean backtest is necessary but never sufficient proof of a real, future edge.
Context anchor
Backtest = simulated past · paper trading = live but unfunded · live = real money
Example
Backtested on 2018–2026 BTC data, whale-outflow rules showed no edge after fees
Also known as
backtestbacktestingback-testback testbacktestedhistorical simulation