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Concepts
Implied Probability
What a prediction-market price says about an event's odds (0–100%)
Definition
The probability a market assigns to an outcome, read straight from the contract price: a 'Yes' share at $0.62 ≈ 62% implied odds. It moves as traders buy and sell. Descriptive of crowd sentiment — not a forecast or guarantee.
Context anchor
Price $0.00–1.00 maps to 0–100%. A 5-point move = a 5% shift in crowd odds
Example
A 'Yes' share trading at $0.62 carries a 62% implied probability
Also known as
implied oddsimplied probimplizite wahrscheinlichkeitprobabilidad implícita