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Concepts
Prediction Market
A market where traders trade event outcomes; prices = crowd odds
Definition
A market where participants trade contracts on a future event's outcome (election, rate decision, …). A contract price between 0 and 1 reflects the crowd's implied probability. Polymarket is the largest on-chain venue. We surface it descriptively.
Context anchor
Distinct from whale flow: it shows what the crowd prices, before it becomes news
Example
On a prediction market, a 'Fed cuts rates' contract trading at $0.68 means 68% implied odds
Also known as
prediction marketspolymarketprognosemarktmercado de predicción