Pi Cycle Top, Stock-to-Flow und Benchmark-Vergleiche — berechnet aus 7.5 Mio.+ täglichen Preispunkten seit 2010.
Pi Cycle Top Indicator
111-Day Moving Average vs 350-Day Moving Average × 2
How it works: When the 111-DMA crosses above the 350-DMA×2, it has historically signaled the top of every Bitcoin bull-market cycle — 4 crossings since 2013 marking 3 distinct cycle tops (April 2013 and December 2013 are intra-cycle, both within the 2013 bull-run; the other two: December 2017 and April 2021) — often within 3 days of the exact peak.
Historical crossovers (cycle tops):
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BTC vs Traditional Assets
Cumulative return: BTC vs S&P 500 (SPY, total return), Gold (GLD), US Total Bonds (AGG), NASDAQ & a synthetic 70/30 portfolio (monthly rebalanced). All series normalized to 100 at window start.
How to read: All series start at 100. A line at 130 means +30% cumulative. Click a label in the legend to hide/show that series. Past observations only — not a forecast or trading signal.
Cumulative return summary:
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Risk-adjusted KPIs (annualized):
Asset
Ann. Return
Ann. Vol.
Sharpe
Alpha vs base
Beta
Max Drawdown
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Methodology & caveats
Stock-to-Flow Model
Supply scarcity model — actual price vs S2F model price
How it works: Stock-to-Flow measures scarcity as the ratio of existing supply (stock) to annual new production (flow). After each halving, the flow halves and S2F doubles, historically correlating with major price increases. The model price is derived from: price = e^(3.21 × ln(S2F) - 1.6). Note: the model has shown significant drift from spot since 2022 — kept here as historical reference, not a forecast.
Halvings:
2012-11-282016-07-092020-05-112024-04-20
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